The influence of climate change on the ecological condition of the Oskil river basin

Abstract

The Oskil River Basin is of cross-border importance, as it flows within two countries - Russia and Ukraine, so the assessment of the ecological status of the basins and the development of measures to improve it is a very important task. The study has specified the long-term dynamics of the climatic factors and hydrological parameters of building predictive models by the Holt-Winters method. The results indicate that the climate change tends to increase the average temperatures. Another consequence is a decrease in the average amount of precipitation. The model, which was built with using the hydrological parameters of the runoff volume and water consumption, predicts their significant reduction in the future. These trends can have negative consequences for the environmental state, create risks, and increase infestations