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dc.contributor.authorЯЩЕНКО, ОЛЕКСАНДР АНАТОЛІЙОВИЧ-
dc.date.accessioned2021-12-28T08:09:29Z-
dc.date.available2021-12-28T08:09:29Z-
dc.date.issued2021-
dc.identifier.urihttp://repositsc.nuczu.edu.ua/handle/123456789/14557-
dc.description.abstractPossibilities of parameterization of the zero-order Brown model for indoor air forecasting based on the current measure of air state gain recurrence are considered. The key to the zero-order parametric Brown forecasting model is the selection of the smoothing parameter, which characterizes forecast adaptability to the current air state gain recurrence measure. It is shown that for effective short-term indoor fire forecast, the Brown model parameter must be selected from the out-of-limit set defined by 1 and 2. The out-of-limit set for the Brown model parameter is an area of effective fire forecasting based on the measure of current indoor air state gain recurrence. Errors of fire forecast based on the parameterized zero-order Brown model in the case of the classical and out-of-limit sets of the model parameters are investigated using the example of ignition of various materials in a laboratory chamber. As quantitative indicators of forecast quality, the absolute and mean forecast errors exponentially smoothed with a parameter of 0.4 are investigated. It was found that for alcohol, the smoothed absolute and mean forecast errors for the classical smoothing parameter in the no-ignition interval do not exceed 20 %. At the same time, for the out-of-limit case, the indicated forecast errors are, on average, an order of magnitude smaller. Similar ratios for forecast errors remain in paper, wood and textile ignition. However, for the transition zone corresponding to the time of material ignition, a sharp decrease in the current measure of chamber air state gain recurrence is observed. It was found that for this zone, the smoothed absolute forecast error for alcohol is about 2 % if the model parameter is selected from the classical set. If the model parameter is selected from the out-of-limit set, the forecast error is about 0.2 %. The results generally demonstrate significant advantages of using the zero-order Brown parametric model with out-of-limit model parameters for indoor fire forecasting.ru_RU
dc.publisherEastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technologies, 3(10(111)), 27–33, 2021. doi: https://doi.org/10.15587/1729-4061.2021.233606 7 Pages Posted: 9 Aug 2021ru_RU
dc.subjectfire forecastingru_RU
dc.subjectrecurrence measureru_RU
dc.subjectignitionru_RU
dc.subjectout-of-limit setru_RU
dc.subjectzero-order Brown model,ru_RU
dc.titleSHORT-TERM FIRE FORECAST BASED ON AIR STATE GAIN RECURRENCE AND ZERO-ORDER BROWN MODELru_RU
Розташовується у зібраннях:Кафедра управління та організації діяльності у сфері цивільного захисту

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