RISK-ORIENTED GOVERNANCE IN CONTEMPORARY PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION: A COMPREHENSIVE THEORETICAL, METHODOLOGICAL, AND INSTITUTIONAL ANALYSIS

Abstract

This research presents a comprehensive analysis of the transition toward risk-oriented governance in contemporary public administration, an evolution necessitated by the shift from post-war stability to systemic vulnerability. By reconceptualizing risk as a foundational category of governance rather than a technical variable, the study explores how modern institutions can enhance strategic capacity and reflexivity. A central pillar of this analysis is Ulrich Beck’s “Risk Society” thesis, which posits a transition from the distribution of “goods” to the distribution of manufactured “bads”, challenging the “organized irresponsibility” of traditional bureaucratic structures. The analysis incorporates the International Risk Governance Council (IRGC) framework, providing a multi-stakeholder pathway for managing systemic risks through interlinked phases of pre-assessment, appraisal, and evaluation. Methodologically, the work advocates for pluralism, integrating quantitative data-driven models with qualitative expert insights to bridge the gap between objective indicators and subjective contexts. It also introduces “Evidential Pluralism” (EBP+) for robust policy evaluation. To address the 2024–2025 “polycrisis” landscape – characterized by compounding climate, geopolitical, and digital threats – the research utilizes the OECD’s FIELD/SCOPES and the “AAA” (Antifragile, Anticipatory, Agility) frameworks to institutionalize proactivity. Economic flexibility is further addressed via Real Options Theory, treating public investments as dynamic options to manage uncertainty. Finally, the study warns against the “state of exception”, where crisis-driven governance may normalize exceptional executive powers, and instead proposes an ethical framework built on ex ante accountability and integrated cross-sector resilience.