Model for forecast-ing emergencies: the regional dimension

Abstract

Providing safety in emergency situations requires a reliable functioning of the system for responding to emergency situations of natural and man-made nature, adequate to the level and character of the threats. An important aspect of this activity is the advance forecasting of the possibility of occurrence and economic consequences of such phenomena. The article developed a model and methods for forecasting emergencies in Ukraine and the administrative - territorial units of the state. When developing the model, a modular approach is used: the model is created as a set of separate modules, united in a single complex by information links. Input data for the implementation of the forecast are statistical data on emergency monitoring for a certain period of observation.