Аналіз та кількісна порівняльна оцінка ризиків надзвичайних ситуацій техногенного характеру на території України

Abstract

У статті проаналізовано ризики надзвичайних ситуацій техногенного характеру на території України, розглянуто причини та основні чинники, що впливають на стан техногенної небезпеки в регіонах держави. Здійснено порівняльну оцінку стану загроз території та населення регіонів. Abstract. Subject. Processes of man-made emergencies on the territory of the state and its regions. Theme of work. Analysis and quantitative comparative assessment of risks of man-made emergencies on the territory of Ukraine. The purpose of the work. Comprehensive analysis of risks of man-made emergencies on the territory of the state and determination of the most technogenic regions of the country. Research methodology. Comparative assessment of the state of man-made threats of the territory and population of the regions of the state is carried out by comparing the average annual number of man-made emergencies in each region and the state as a whole, taking into account the density of the population. Criteria for classification of the territory and population of the regions of the state according to the level of man-made threats are proposed: relatively optimal, relatively acceptable, unacceptable. Research results. The method of quantitative comparative assessment of risks of emergencies of technogenic character on the territory of the state is offered and regions of the country with rather optimum, rather admissible and unacceptable level of technogenic threats for the territory and the population of regions of the state are defined. Conclusions and scope of research results. The analysis of the state of mancaused danger in the regions of Ukraine showed that each of them has its own levels of man-made threat, which must be taken into account to adequately respond to emergencies of different na-ture. As a result of research on the basis of the proposed methodology, it is established that the unacceptable level of man-made threats to the territory and population is typical for Donetsk, Luhansk, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv and Lviv regions. This indicates the low effectiveness of measures to prevent man-made emergencies in these areas of the country. The obtained results of the research are the foundation for substantiation of organizational and technical measures to prevent and adequately respond to civil defense forces to emergencies of man-made nature both in the state and its regions.