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http://repositsc.nuczu.edu.ua/handle/123456789/14878| Title: | Model for forecasting emergencies: the regional dimension |
| Authors: | Іванець, Григорій Володимирович Поспєлов, Борис Борисович Толкунов, Ігор Олександрович Стецюк, Євген Ігорович Іванець, Михайло Григорович |
| Keywords: | emergency situation model threat risks security prognosis monitoring, least square method character and level of emergency situation |
| Issue Date: | 2017 |
| Publisher: | East journal of security studies. Collection of scienstific papers. |
| Citation: | Kharkiv, Slupsk |
| Series/Report no.: | Vol. 2/2;C. 41-55. |
| Abstract: | Providing safety in emergency situations requires a reliable functioning of the system for responding to emergency situations of natural and man-made nature, adequate to the level and character of the threats. An important aspect of this activity is the advance forecasting of the possibility of occurrence and economic consequences of such phenomena. The article developed a model and methods for forecasting emergencies in Ukraine and the administrativeterritorial units of the state. When developing the model, a modular approach is used: the model is created as a set of separate modules, united in a single complex by information links. Input data for the implementation of the forecast are statistical data on emergency monitoring for a certain period of observation. |
| Description: | 1. Ivanets, G.V. Analysis of technological, natural and social hazards administrative units of Ukraine based monitoring. [Scientific works of Kharkov Air Force University]. Kh.: Kharkov Air Force University named after Ivan Kozhedub, 2016. Vol. 3 (48). 142-145. Print. 2. Ivanets Grigory and Gorelyshev Stanislav. Assessment of the level of technogenic-natural-social danger of the regions of the state on the basis of the vector-statistical analysis method taking into account the area of their territory and the population.[Scientific journal «Power and Society» (History, Theory, Practice)]. Tbilisi, Georgia: Association for Open Diplomacy, 2016. Vol. 3 (39). 162-174. Access mode http://odageorgia.ge/?page=gamocemebi. 3. Tyutyunik, V.V., Ivanets, G.V. and Horyelyshev, S.A. Methods of evaluation of technogenic, natural and social hazards administrative units of Ukraine. [Proceedings of the National Academy of the National Guard of Ukraine]. Kh.: National Academy of the National Guard of Ukraine, 2016. Vol. 1 (27). 30-37. Print. 4. Code of Civil Protection of Ukraine on October 2, 2012 № 5403-VI. [Voice of Ukraine]. K.: 2012. No 220 (5470). 4-20. Print. 5. Golovan, Yu.V. and Kozyr, T.V. Protection of the population in emergency situations. Organizational and methodical complex. Prospekt Publishing House, Far Eastern State Technical University, 2015. 219 p. Print. 6. Emelyanov, V.M. Protection of the population and territories in emergency situations. M.: 2002. 279-289. Print. 7. Shaptala, V.G., Radautsky V.Yu. and Shaptala, V.V. Fundamentals of the simulation of emergency situations. Tutorial. Belgorod: 2010. 166 p. Print. 8. Mikhailov, L.A. and Solomin, V.P. Emergency situations of natural, technological and social protection from them. St. Petersburg: Peter, 2008. 235 p. Print. 9. Rodin, M.V. and Mukhin, V.I. Fundamental problems of monitoring and forecasting of natural and technological disasters. [Scientific and educational problems of civil protection]. Khimki: 2010. No 1. 9-14. Print. 10. Ivanets, G.V. and Bugaev A.Yu. Prediction technological emergency based on statistical monitoring. [Problems of emergency]. Kh.: National University of Civil Protection of Ukraine, 2016. Vol. 23. 39-45. Print. 11. Ivanets, G.V. Algorithm forecasting emergency situations of natural character in general, the types and levels of possible damages due to them. [Information processing systems: technologies]. Kh.: Kharkov Air Force University named after Ivan Kozhedub, 2016. Vol. 8 (145). 175-179. Print. 12. Ivanets, G.V. Algorithm forecasting emergencies social types and levels of possible damages due to them. [Proceedings of Kharkov National University of the Air Force]. Kh.: Kharkov Air Force National University named after Ivan Kozhedub, 2016. Vol. 4 (49). 173-176. Print. |
| URI: | http://repositsc.nuczu.edu.ua/handle/123456789/14878 |
| Appears in Collections: | Кафедра піротехнічної та спеціальної підготовки |
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| File | Description | Size | Format | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Model for forecasting emergencies the regional dimension.pdf | 523,08 kB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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