Analysis of some known modern mathematical models for forecasting the environmental condition of surface water bodies of Ukraine

Abstract

The problem of ecological safety of water bodies is relevant for all water basins of Ukraine. In the UNESCO rating, Ukraine ranks 95th among 122 countries in the world in terms of the level of rational use of water resources and water quality. Ecological forecasting is a scientifically based prediction of changes in the ecological state of environmental components that may occur as a result of natural processes or as a result of direct human activity or as a result of a natural disaster or military actions. There are three main groups into which all methods of forecasting the state of the natural environment are divided: heuristic methods of expert assessment; extrapolation methods (statistical methods); methods of mathematical modulation.